The S&P 500 has officially ended the first two months of the year in negative territory, a historically uncommon occurrence. So what does that mean for the balance of the year?…
Month: February 2022
Q1 S&P Estimates Cuts, Fed Funds, Tax Refund Data
Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: Starting off on a positive point, US tax refund season is going very well. These remittances are often the largest lump sum payments US households…
S&P 500: What Happens After Bad Start
After such a volatile trading session and with the S&P 500 down 10.0 percent year-to-date, today we want to reprise our work on how US equities tend to perform during…
Recessions & Inflation, Fund Flows, RTO Still Slow
Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The most straightforward way to bring down US inflation is to have a recession. That’s an awkward observation for a few reasons. First, no one…
Fed Funds, S&P Earnings, Russian Stocks
Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The latest Fed Funds Futures-based probabilities for FOMC interest rate policy this year (link to CME FedWatch tool below): For the upcoming March 16th…
Where is Fair Value on the S&P 500?
Today was a bad one for US stocks and the close was especially troublesome, so let’s talk about what’s going on and what to do from here. Two points: #1:…