Excerpt from Barron’s quoting DataTrek’s Nick Colas:
…. “But while the central bank will likely lower its federal-funds target rate once again at its Oct. 29-30 meeting, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, is keeping an eye on three key indicators. Two of the three appear optimistic. The other isn’t far off its levels in September 2007.
That indicator, the New York Fed’s Recession Probabilities model, draws its data from the difference between the three-month and 10-year Treasury yields. That’s right—the much-discussed inverted yield curve.
Indeed, this model puts the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 34.8%, which, as Colas notes, is close to where the same model sat in September 2007, when it was at 34.6%. Still, it’s an improvement from August, when the model read 37.9%, he noted”….
Read the rest of Nick’s quotes and the full article here on Barron’s!