Excerpt from the Irish Times quoting DataTrek Research:
…. “Researchers at the Federal Reserve, too, are cautious. According to the New York Federal Reserve’s recession probability index, there is a 33 per cent chance of a recession in the next 12 months.
An optimist might shrug that off and say there is a 67 per cent chance a recession will not ensue, but history suggests it’s not that simple. The nature of the model means there has not been a reading in excess of 50 per cent since 1982, notes DataTrek Research, not even during the global financial crisis in 2008″….
Read the full article here in the Irish Times!